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This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. Five or more cards with the total still no more than 21 as an automatic win (a "Charlie") [edit] In December of 1999 I wrote the story below about Fred Marino suing Discover Card. In the wake of that lawsuit, last week Discover Card signed an agreement in California Superior court it will not operate merchant accounts with online casino companies that may do business with California residents. Since it is hard to tell if the customer is from California this may mean that players will not be able finance their online gambling with a Discover Card.
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In March, 1400 Gambling Clubs in Australia removed ATM machines from the gaming area to help curb problem gambling. I think the U S casinos may have to someday address this issue as well. Maybe if it wasn't so easy to gamble with borrowed money we would be better off. Credit card companies could avoid lawsuits like Mr. Marino's by not allowing people to use their cards for online gambling. Roulette Online Blackjack hands are scored by their point total. The hand with the highest total wins as long as it doesn't exceed 21; a hand with a higher total than 21 is said to bust. Cards 2 through 10 are worth their face value, and face cards (jack, queen, king) are also worth 10. An ace's value is 11 unless this would cause the player to bust, in which case it is worth 1. A hand in which an ace's value is counted as 11 is called a soft hand. If the 'Banker' has an initial total of 3, the 'Banker' draws another card when the 'Player's' third card is anything but an 8. Another interesting legend I turned up about the origins of the game said that the wheel's inventor actually sold his soul to Satan for it. That one's pretty tough to prove, but an interesting coincidence (or is it?) is that if you add up all the numbers on the Roulette wheel, the total is 666. I'm not sure if that makes me more prone to bet on red or black. Knock-Out Blackjack, Olaf Vancura and Ken Fuchs, 1998, ISBN 0929712315 The goal of each player is to beat the dealer, by having the higher, unbusted hand. Note that if the player busts, he loses, even if the dealer also busts, which is the source of the casino's advantage. If the player's and the dealer's hands have the same point value, this is known as a "push", and neither player nor dealer wins the hand. The laws of baccarat are complicated and no one code is accepted as authoritative, the different clubs making their own rules.
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